Q4 Market Report - Snow Summit
Snow Summit Area Market Trends: $0-$800,000 Price Range
The following stats are for the Snow Summit Area. I have divided the Total Big Bear Area into 10 Sub Areas to give you more detailed information on the area where your property is located. Like most of Big Bear, I have broken up the Snow Summit Market into two segments. Up to $800,000 property value and the Luxury Market over $800,000. This seems to be the most accurate price range to split the market. Every three months, I will post detailed quarterly market trend tables and graphs for each price range with a condensed but easy to understand examination of the market stats. If you want to just get the short version of the market in the Snow Summit Area you can skip to the bottom of each price range and read the Summary.
Market Prices
Table 1 (below) was created from the two year average price monthly graphs for the Total Big Bear Area and the 10 sub areas. Graph 1 below covers the Snow Summit Area monthly stats. I will be using the table to analyze what trends I see with Real Estate prices in the 0 - $800,000 Market in the Snow Summit Area. The table and graph have the parameters of: Price Range 0 - $800,000, from January 2021 to December of 2022.
While there will be fluctuations from quarter to quarter, for now the Snow Summit Area has a $233,000 gain over the last 2 years. . I would expect this gain to decrease over the next few quarters. The Snow Summit Area gained $139,000 in average price in the fourth quarter, and a total gain of $8,000 from the peak of March 2022. The Snow Summit area is the only sub area to have a gain. Most of the gain was in our Boom cycle which for most areas stopped in April of 2022. I expect this gain to turn into a loss, with this loss continuing to increase because we are in a down cycle. We will have to see how long this down cycle will last and the influence it has on prices.
If you want to know what your Big Bear cabin is worth in this price range in the Snow Summit area, contact me to get a more detailed market analysis that takes into consideration the number of Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Square Feet, Lot size, Condition and Views or location.
Sales vs Active Listings (supply and demand)
Table 2 shows what residential real estate inventory changes (Sales vs Active listings) have occurred for the Total Big Bear Area and sub areas. It is made up of monthly graphs for each area. Graph 2 below is for the Snow Summit Area monthly stats. These stats are compiled by using a parameter of: Price Range of 0 - $800,000 from the 2-year period January 2021 to December of 2022.
You can see from column 5 that sales have gone down by 4 this quarter compared to last quarter, and listings are down by 7. When you look at column 6 this quarter compared to the fourth quarter of last year, sales are down 3 in this quarter and listings are up by 12. This shows us that economic influences of higher rates and inflation have affected sales this quarter compared to last quarter and compared to a year ago. More listings will also cause prices to go down. Given the current economic conditions I would expect the number of listings to go up and sales to decline. This will put pressure on prices to go down. Which is what you would expect in a declining market. So far the Snow Summit Area is doing well considering the market we are experiencing.
Graph 3 In the Snow Summit area, the sales to expired ratios are getting worse with sales and expired listings over a 1:2 ratio. There will always be expired listings. And a 1:2 ratio or higher is considered a declining market ratio. This is not a good sign for the Snow Summit area.
Summary
With these numbers we can say that the fourth quarter had a unexpected large increase of $139,000 in price in the Snow Summit Area. This gain made up for all the loses for the last 3 quarters of 2022. The average monthly price for December is $658,000 which is higher than what was the peak in March of 2022 at $650,000. Also this area had an increase in sales over last quarter even with the declining economy and an decrease in listings. It also has still retained equity over the last two years of $233,000. For vacation homes the Snow Summit Area is in a good market. We now know that we are going to stay in this declining market for the overall Big Bear Area at least the next few quarters. .It will be interesting to see what happens in the Snow Summit Area.
Economic data for the fourth quarter and beyond is all pointing to a continuation of a down market.
Expect the graphs for the first quarter of 2023 to reflect a continued slow Real Estate Market.
My opinion is that we are going to see prices continue to fall. Cabins will be on the market longer. Sales will decline. It will take longer to sell cabins and we will have more expired listings because of the sellers who don’t reduce their price.
Snow Summit Area Market Trends: $800,000 and Up Price Range
The following stats are for the Snow Summit Area. I have divided the Total Big Bear Area into 10 Sub Areas to give you more detailed information on the area where your property is located. Like most of Big Bear, I have broken up the Snow Summit Market into two segments Up to $800,000 property value and the Luxury Market over $800,000. This seems to be the most accurate price range to split the market. Every three months, I will post detailed quarterly market trend tables and graphs for each price range with a condensed but easy to understand examination of the market stats. If you want to just get the short version you can skip to the bottom and read the Summary.
Market Prices
In this price range there can be a difference of $400,000 or more in the monthly average price. Because of this volatility I will be using the annual averages instead of the monthly averages for the $800,000 and up Luxury market to analyze how prices are trending..
Table 1 (below) was created from the last three years, average annual price graph (graph 1) for the Total Big Bear Area and the 10 sub areas. I will be using this table to analyze what trends I see with Real Estate prices in the $800,000 and up Market in these areas. The table and graph have the parameters of: Price Range $800,000 and up, from January 2020 to December of 2022. I have also printed the monthly graph (Graph 2) for the Snow Summit Area if you want to look at it.
In the Snow Summit Area, 2022 has continued with the price increase that it has been enjoying the last 3 years. What started out with an average price in 2020, of $1,176,000 brought us to $1,250,000 through 2022. For an increase of $74,000. But the Snow Summit Area has a $30,000 decrease over the Total Big Bear Area. This has brought the Snow Summit Area to a ranking of 5 out of 10 areas in average price for the luxury market in 2022. So overall you can see that the prices in the Luxury Market for the Snow Summit Area have had a nice increase the last few years, but is not doing as well as the Total Big Bear Area and half of the sub areas. But you have to remember that up until a few years ago we really didn’t have many sales in the Snow Summit Area that were $800,000 plus. To see how the prices in the other sub areas have done for comparison please refer to Table 1 below or check out the write up on that area.
If you want to know what your Big Bear cabin is worth in this price range in the Snow Summit area, contact me to get a more detailed market analysis that takes into consideration the number of Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Square Feet, Lot size, Condition and Views or location.
Sales vs Active Listings (supply and demand)
Table 2 shows what residential real estate inventory changes (Sales vs Active listings) have occurred for the Total Big Bear Area and sub areas. It is made up of monthly graphs for each area. Graph 3 below is for the Snow Summit Area monthly stats. These stats are compiled by using a parameter of: Price Range of $800,000 and up from the 2-year period January 2021 to December of 2022.
You can see from column 5 that sales are up this quarter compared to last quarter by 2 and listings are down by 3. When you look at this quarter compared to the fourth quarter of last year sales are up by 1 in this quarter and listings are up by 6. This shows us that economic influences of higher rates and inflation haven’t affected sales compared to last quarter and the Snow Summit Area actually has more sales in this quarter compared to a year ago. So having more listings this quarter than a year ago didn’t cause sales to go down. Given the current economic conditions I would expect the number of listings to go up and sales to decline. Which is what you would expect in a declining market. It is also worth noting that during 2019 and before we were lucky to have 2 or 3 sales in three months in this price range for the whole Big Bear market. So overall this market is still in good condition.
Graph 4 In the Snow Summit Area, the sales to expired ratios for the last two years have been good with sales and expired listings between a 1:1 and a 1:2 ratio. There will always be expired listings. And a 1:1 ratio is considered a good ratio for a stable market. Now that we are staying in the 1:2 ratio like we have the last 5 months it is another indicator that this market is into a declining market..
Summary
With these numbers we can say that the fourth quarter in the Snow Summit Area prices have started to drop in this price range like the rest of Big Bear. But there is still preserved equity from the build up in the cabins there for the last 3 years of $74,000. Sales have gone up slightly the last quarter and listings have gone up more. Which will influence prices to go down. Expired listings, have moved up this quarter again which indicates that this market may be getting weaker. The nice part is that sales and prices stayed at a good level. For vacation homes in a luxury market this is a good market for now. We will have to see how the influence of the economy affect this market.
Economic data for the fourth quarter and beyond is all pointing to a continuation of a down market.
Expect the graphs for the first quarter of 2023 to reflect a continued slow Real Estate Market.
My opinion is that we are going to see prices continue to fall. Cabins will be on the market longer. Sales will decline. It will take longer to sell cabins and we will have more expired listings because of the sellers who don’t reduce their price.