Q4 Market Report - Over 800k
Total Big Bear Area Luxury Market Trends: $800,000 And Over Price Range
The following stats are for the Total Big Bear Area. I have divided the Total Big Bear Area into 10 Sub Areas to give you more detailed information on the area where your property is located. Like most of Big Bear, I have broken up the Total Big Bear Market into two segments Up to $800,000 property value and the Luxury Market over $800,000. This seems to be the most accurate price range to split the market. Every three months, I will post detailed quarterly market trend tables and graphs for each price range with a condensed but easy to understand examination of the market stats. If you want to just get the short version you can skip to the bottom and read the Summary.
Market Prices
In this price range there can be a difference of $400,000 or more in the monthly average price. Because of this volatility I will be using the annual averages instead of the monthly averages for the $800,000 and up Luxury market to analyze how prices are trending..
Table 1 (below) was created from the last three years, average annual price graph (graph 1) for the Total Big Bear Area and the 10 sub areas. I will be using this table to analyze what trends I see with Real Estate prices in the $800,000 and up Market in these areas. The table and graph have the parameters of: Price Range $800,000 and up, from January 2020 to December of 2022. I have also printed the monthly graph (Graph 2) for the Total Big Bear Area if you want to look at it.
In the Total Big Bear Area the fourth quarter of 2022 continued with the price stability that we have been enjoying since January of 2020. What started out with an average price in 2020, of $1,319,000 and ended the three year period with an average price for 2022 of $1,280,000 For an decrease of $39,000. With some of the sub areas losing over $200,000 while other areas gaining over $300,000. So overall you can see that the prices in the Luxury Market in Big Bear has stayed stable the last few years. But if you look at the monthly chart you can see that prices have had a sharp decline in the past 4 months. To see how the prices in the sub areas have done please refer to Table 1 below, and you can also look at the write up for that sub area.
If you want to know what your Big Bear cabin is worth in this price range in your area, contact me to get a more detailed market analysis that takes into consideration the number of Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Square Feet, Lot size, Condition and Views or location.
Sales vs Active Listings (supply and demand)
Table 2 shows what residential real estate inventory changes (Sales vs Active listings) have occurred for the Total Big Bear Area and sub areas. It is made up of monthly graphs for each area. Graph 3 below is for the Total Big Bear Area monthly stats. These stats are compiled by using a parameter of: Price Range of $800,000 and up from the 2-year period January 2021 to December of 2022.
You can see from column 5 that sales are down this quarter compared to last quarter by 8 and listings are also down by 13. But when you look at this quarter compared to the fourth quarter of last year, sales are down by 11 in this quarter and listings are up by 41. This shows us that economy influences of higher rates and inflation are causing sales to go down which causes more listings on the market. More listings also causes the prices to go down as we saw in the pricing section. Which is what you would expect in a declining market. This market has always roughly kept the same price average for the last 5 years. It will be interesting to see if the pressure of so many listings, finally start to drive the average price down. It is also worth noting that during 2019 and before we were lucky to have 2 or 3 sales in three months in this price range for the whole Big Bear market. So overall this market is better than before 2019 but compared to the last few years it is in a declining market.
Sales vs Expired Listings (strength of Sales)
Graph 4 In the Total Big Bear Area, the sales to expired ratios have been at a good level. With sales and expired listings close to a 1:1 ratio. There will always be expired listings. And a 1:1 ratio is considered a good ratio for a stable market. But in the last six months we are seeing a 1:2 ratio and worse. December had a 1:5 ratio of sales to expired listings which shows we are in a strong declining market that should drive prices down.
Summary
With these numbers we can say that we have had a steady decline in prices for the last four months. In those four months we have lost over $300,000 in average price. When you look at the sales declining and the expired listing going up the last four months it is easy to see that this is a strong declining market. It is also worth noting that during 2019 and before we were lucky to have 2 or 3 sales in three months in this price range for the Total Big Bear market. So overall this market is better than before 2019 but compared to the last few years it is in a sharp drop.
Economic data for the fourth quarter and beyond is all pointing to a continuation of a down market.
Expect the graphs for the first quarter of 2023 to reflect a continued slow Real Estate Market.
My opinion is that we are going to see prices continue to fall. Cabins will be on the market longer. Sales will decline. It will take longer to sell cabins and we will have more expired listings because of the sellers who don’t reduce their price.