Q2 Total Area Market Report
Total Big Bear Area Market Trends
Every three months, I will post detailed quarterly market trend tables made from three year graphs, for the Total Big Bear Area and 10 Sub Areas. Using the tables and graphs I will report the trends of Market Prices, Sales vs Active Listings, and Expired Listings and summarize what they mean to the current and future Total Big Bear Area and 10 Sub Areas Real Estate Markets. This section is for the Total Big Bear Area. The following analysis is a detailed but easy to understand examination of these market trends.
The following stats have 2 sections. Section 1 Up To $800,000 property value and Section 2 $800,000 And Up, (the Luxury Market). This seems to be the most accurate price range to split the market. If you want to just get the short version of the market in the Total Big Bear Area, you can read the Overall Summary of both price ranges before section 1.
Section 1 notes: the Castle Glen, Eagle Knolls and Eagle Point/Eagle Point Estates Areas are not included in section 1 stats due to the fact that there aren’t any sales under $800,000 in these areas.
Section 2 notes: the possibility of wide swings in monthly and quarterly market prices in the $800,000 And up Luxury Market.
Up To $800,000 Overall Summary
Market Prices in the second quarter of 2024 there was an decrease in Price of $39,000 (-9%) in average monthly price compared to the average monthly price for the first quarter of 2024. This was expected. There was also a decrease in price of $20,000 (-5%) from 1 year ago and a decrease in price of $60,000 (-13%) from 3 years ago. So in this price range the Total Big Bear area is down $60,000 in price from the peak 3 years ago.
Sales and Listings in the second quarter of 2024 there was a average monthly increase in sales of 8 per month and a increase of 98 listings per month, compared to the first quarter of 2024. There was also a decrease of 2 Sales per month and a increase of 101 listings per month compared to 1 year ago. We also had a decrease of 28 sales per month and a increase of 93 listings per month compared to 3 years ago.
Expired Listings have been experiencing a normal ratio until the last quarter. Which had a ratio higher than we would normally have for the first quarter. Which is an indicator of a weaking of the market.
These numbers show us that the economic influences of higher rates because of inflation have affected prices by driving sales down which caused listings to go up which caused prices to go down. We have lost $60,000 from the peak of prices 3 years ago.
When looking at the data of the Total Big Bear Area the two big areas of market influence to watch are of course interest rates and the number of listings that come on the market. We just had a 1% drop in mortgage interest rates. Which is great news. The question is will this be enough to bring sales back up to a normal level which should at least stop prices from going down any further?
$800,000 And Up Luxury Market Overall Summary
Market Prices in the second quarter of 2024 there was an increase in Price of $139,000 (+11%) in average monthly price compared to the average monthly price for the first quarter of 2024. There was a decrease in price of $30,000 (-2%) from 1 year ago and a increase in price of $86,000 (+7%) from 3 years ago. So in this price range for the Total Big Bear Area prices are up $86,000 in price from the peak 3 years ago.
You must remember to consider the wide price swings in the Luxury Market.
Sales and Listings in the second quarter of 2024 sales were up by 3 and there was a increase of 34 listings per month, compared to the first quarter of 2024. There was also a increase of 2 Sales per month and a increase of 28 listings compared to 1 year ago. We also had a decrease of 9 sales per month and a decrease of 15 listings per month compared to 3 years ago.
Expired Listings the sales to expired ratio for the last three years have been up and down like prices in this price range. We are usually at a 1:1 to 1:2 ratio with sales and expired listings. Where in the summer we have a 1:1 ratio, and in the fall and winter we have a 1:2 ratio. Right now we are in a normal market for this price range overall. But with an increase in listings there may be pressure for expired listings to go up which can cause prices to come down.
These numbers show us that the economic influences of higher rates and inflation have not affected prices or sales. But listings are up which could affect prices in a negative way.
We just had a 1% drop in mortgage interest rates. Which is great news. The question is will this be enough to keep sales at a normal level which should at least stop prices from going down?
Section 1 Up To $800,000
Market Prices
Last Quarter Market Trends The 2024 average monthly price for the second quarter of $447,000 was down $39,000 from the 2024 first quarter average monthly price of $486,000.
1 Year Market Trends The 2024 average monthly price for the second quarter of $447,000 was down $20,000 from the 2023 second quarter average monthly price of $468,000.
3 Year Market Trends The 2024 average monthly price for the second quarter of $447,000 was down $60,000 from the 2022 second quarter average monthly price of $507,000.
Area Ranking The numbers below show you how the Total Big Bear Area compares to the 7 sub areas this quarter.
Total Big Bear Area $447,000
The sub areas ranked as follows:
Fox Farm $655,000
Moonridge Area $560,000
Big Bear Lake Area $513,000
Fawnskin Area $486,000
Lake Front Area $483,000
Snow Summit Area $482,000
Big Bear City Area $436,000
Price Summary These numbers shows us that compared to last quarter the economic influences of higher rates and inflation have affected prices in a negative way with prices down $39,000. When compared to 1 year ago prices are down $30,000. And when compared to 3 years ago prices are down $60,000 from their peak. Now that we have a 1% drop in interest rates hopefully this is enough to help stabilize the market.
If you want to know what your Big Bear cabin is worth in this price range. contact me to get a more detailed market analysis that takes into consideration the number of Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Square Feet, Lot size, Condition, Views and location.
Sales vs Active Listings (supply and demand)
Last Quarter The second quarter of 2043 had average monthly sales of 56 per month. Which was a increase of 8 sales per month when compared to the sales of 48 per month for the first quarter of 2024. The average number of listings per month for the second quarter of 2024 was 387 which is 98 per month more when compared to the 289 average monthly listings for the first quarter of 2024.
1 Year Average The second quarter of 2043 had average monthly sales of 56 per month. Which was a decrease of 2 sales per month when compared to the sales of 58 per month in the second quarter of 2023. The average number of listings per month for the second quarter of 2024 was 387 which is 101 per month more when compared to the 286 average number of listings for the second quarter of 2023.
3 Year Average The second quarter of 2043 had average monthly sales of 56 per month. Which was a decrease of 28 sales per month when compared to the sales of 31 per month in the second quarter of 2022. The average number of listings per month for the second quarter of 2024 was 387 which is 93 per month more when compared to the 294 average monthly listings for the second quarter of 2022.
Sales vs Active Listings Summary These numbers show us that compared to last quarter the economic influences of higher rates and inflation have had a negative affected on sales and listings with sales down 8 and listings up 98. And when compared to 1 year ago sales are down 2 and listings are up 101. And when compared to 3 years ago sales are down 28 and listings are up 93. Now that we have a 1% drop in mortgage interest rates hopefully we will have a normal amount of sales which would stabilize prices.
Sales vs Expired Listings (strength of sales)
Sales Vs Expired Market Trends Graph 3 In the Total Big Bear Area, the sales to expired ratios for the last three years have been at a good level with sales and expired listings close to a 1:1 ratio. Where a 1:1 ratio is considered a good ratio for a stable market. Starting in October, and through March we stayed in a 1:2 ratio. This is a normal pattern. You can see from the graph this also happen before. So far we haven’t seen a surge in Expired listings but with the increase we just had in listings we may see a lot more expired listings. Which could put pressure on prices to go down. Hopefully with the 1% drop in interest rate sales will go up enough to lower expired listings and help keep prices from going down.
Section 2 $800,000 And Up (Luxury Market)
Market Prices
Last Quarter Market Trends The 2024 average monthly price for the second quarter of $1,294,000 was up $139,000 from the 2024 first quarter average monthly price of $1,155,000.
1 Year Market Trends The 2024 average monthly price for the second quarter of $1,294,000 was down $30,000 from the 2023 second quarter average monthly price of $1,324,000.
3 Year Market Trends The 2024 average monthly price for the second quarter of $1,294,000 was up $86,0000 from the 2022 second quarter average monthly price of $1,208,000.
Area Ranking The numbers below show you how the Total Big Bear Area compares to the 10 sub areas this quarter. Eagle knolls didn’t have any sales in the second quarter of 2024.
Total Big Bear Area $1,294,000
The sub areas ranked as follows:
Fawnskin Area $1,800,000
Castle Glen Area $1,200,000
Lake Front Area $1,706,000
Fox Farm Area $1,109,000
Big Bear Lake Area $1,345,000
Snow Summit Area $1,080,000
Eagle Point/Estates $1,047,000
Big Bear City $951,000
Moonridge Area $941,000
Eagle Knoll Area $0
Price Summary These numbers shows us that compared to last quarter the economic influences of higher rates and inflation have not affected prices in a negative way with prices up $139,000. When compared to 1 year ago prices are down $30,000. And when compared to 3 years ago prices are up $86,000 from their peak. Now that we have a 1% drop in mortgage interest rates hopefully this will help keep sales and prices at a normal level.
Remember the possibility of wide market swings in this price range. See the first graph below “Historic Sales Price Trend $800,000+”.
If you want to know what your Big Bear cabin is worth in this price range. contact me to get a more detailed market analysis that takes into consideration the number of Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Square Feet, Lot size, Condition, Views and location.
Sales vs Active Listings (supply and demand)
Last Quarter The second quarter of 2024 had average monthly sales of 13 per month. Which was a increase of 3 sales per month when compared to the sales of 10 per month in the first quarter of 2024. The average number of listings per month for the second quarter of 2024 was 119 which is 34 per month more when compared to the 85 average monthly listings for the first quarter of 2024.
1 Year Average The second quarter of 2024 had average monthly sales of 13 per month. Which was a increase of 3 sales per month when compared to the sales of 10 per month in the second quarter of 2022. The average number of listings per month for the second quarter of 2024 was 119 which is 28 per month more when compared to the 91 average number of listings for the second quarter of 2023.
3 Year Average The second quarter of 2024 had average monthly sales of 13 per month. Which was a decrease of 9 sales per month when compared to the sales of 22 per month in the second quarter of 2022. The average number of listings per month for the second quarter of 2024 was 119 which is 15 per month more when compared to the 104 average monthly listings for the second quarter of 2022.
Sales vs Active Listings Summary These numbers show us that compared to last quarter the economic influences of higher rates and inflation have not affected sales in a negative way, which are up by 3, But listings are up by 34. Which could start to affect prices going down. And when compared to to 1 year ago sales are up by 3 and listings are up by 28. And when compared to 3 years ago sales are down by 9 and listings are up by 15. Now that we have a 1% drop in mortgage interest rates hopefully this will help keep sales at a higher level.
It is also worth noting that during 2019 and before we were lucky to have 2 or 3 sales in three months in this price range for the Total Big Bear market. Where in the second quarter of 2024 the Total Big Bear Area averaged 13 Sales per month.
Sales vs Expired Listings (strength of sales)
Sales Vs Expired Market Trends Graph 6 In the Total Big Bear Area, the sales to expired ratio for the last three years have been up and down like prices in this price range. We are usually at a 1:1 to 1:2 ratio with sales and expired listings. Where in the summer we have a 1:1 ratio, and in the fall and winter we have a 1:2 ratio. Right now we are in a normal market for this price range overall. But with an increase in listings there may be pressure for expired listings to go up which can cause prices to come down. Now that we have a 1% drop in mortgage interest rates hopefully this will help keep sales at a higher level and reduce expired listings which will help keep prices at a higher level.
