Q2 Market Report - Under 800k
Total Big Bear Area Market Trends: $0-$800,000 Price Range
Like most of Big Bear, I have broken up the Total Big Bear Market into two segments - Up to $800,000 property value and the luxury market over $800,000. This seems to be the most accurate price range to split the market. Every three months, I will post detailed quarterly market trend graphs for each price range with a condensed but easy to understand examinations of market stats. At the conclusion of our market report there will be a total market summary. This report is for the 0-$800,000 segment. All graphs are using a parameter of: Price Range $0 - $800,000, from January 2020 to March of 2022.
Table 1 Allows us to compare the Total Big Bear Market Area to The Big Three Areas, and the Sub Areas of Big Bear.
Graph 1 Shows what residential real estate price changes have occurred for the Total Big Bear Market Area on a monthly basis.
Graph 2 Shows what residential real estate price changes have occurred for the Total Big Bear Market Area on a annual basis.
Graph 1 When we use the information from Graph 2 and 3 we can see in this quarter the $487,000 price for June ranks The Total Big Bear Market in third place in The Big Three and seventh out of eight different categories in average price for 6/2022. And the amount of $46,000 in price deduction from 3 months ago ranks as second in The Big Three and ranks fourth over all in the eight different categories which include the Sub Areas. The $136,000 gain over 1-2020 to 6/2022 ranks The Total Big Bear Valley third in The Big Three and the second lowest for all eight different categories including the other areas, which brings in the rank, seventh out of eight.
While there will be fluctuations from quarter to quarter, and The Total Big Bear Valley still has a good gain over the last 2 years, but I would expect this gain to be lowered over the next few quarters. . Most of the gain was in our Boom cycle. This gain will now continue to go down because we are in a down cycle and depending on the economy we will have to see how long this down cycle will last and how far prices will go down.
Graph 3 below shows us that listings are starting to go up while sales are staying as low as last quarter. This quarter we had 875 listings for the quarter with 251 sales while last year in the second quarter we had 1030 listings with 413 sales. Comparing the second quarter of the last two years with the second quarter of 2020, we had 1410 listings and 226 sales. But you have to remember that is when the boom just started. As you can see we are already catching up to last year in listings but sales are staying down. If this continues it will keep pressure on prices to continue to go down.
Graph 4 In The Total Big Bear Market Area, the sales to expired ratios are still good with sales and expired listings close to a 1:1 ratio. There will always be expired listings. And a 1:1 ratio is considered a good ratio for a stable market.
Summary
With these numbers we can say that the second quarter started to show our reduction in prices and sales together with a increase in listings. We knew that this was coming with the slow down in the economy and a rise in interest rates because of inflation. Compared to The Big Three we rank third in average sales price for the month of 6/2022. And rank second in Average Loss from 3/2022 to 6/2022 which means our rank in gain in price from 6/2020 to 6/2022 now comes in Third.
When we compare The Total Big Bear Area to the sub areas of Big Bear we rank fifth out of six in average price for the month of 6/2022. We rank Fourth in average loss from 3/2022 to 6/2022 which means our rank in gain in price from 6/2020 to 6/2022 is Fifth.
The Total Big Bear Valley when compared to the rest of Big Bear is doing well and with fluctuations in the graphs I expect some of the rankings to improve. But like the rest of the Big Bear Real Estate Market expect Prices to fall, listings to increase and Sales to go down through the rest of the year.