Q2 Market Report - Fawnskin
Fawnskin Area Market Trends: $0-$800,000 Price Range
Like most of Big Bear, I have broken up the Fawnskin Area Market into two segments. Up to $800,000 property value and the luxury market over $800,000. This seems to be the most accurate price range to split the market. Every three months, I will post detailed quarterly market trend graphs for each price range with a condensed but easy to understand examinations of market stats. At the conclusion of our market report there will be a total market summary. All graphs are using a parameter of: Price Range $0 - $800,000, from January 2020 to March of 2022.
Table 1 Allows us to compare the Fawnskin area to The Big Three Areas, and the Sub Areas of Big Bear.
Graph 1 Shows what residential real estate price changes have occurred for the Fawnskin Area on a monthly basis.
Graph 2 Shows what residential real estate price changes have occurred for the Fawnskin Area on a annual basis.
Graph 1 When we use the information from Graph 2 and 3 we can see in this quarter the $580,000 price for June ranks the Fawnskin Area in third place out of eight different categories in average price for 6/2022. And the $98,000 price deduction from 3 months ago is second highest in Big Bear. But even with the large loss the Fawnskin Area still has a Gain of $142,000 over the past 2 years which ranks it sixth compared to the other eight different categories.
While there will be fluctuations from quarter to quarter. The Fawnskin Area still has a good gain over the last 2 years, but I would expect this gain to be lowered over the next few quarters. . Most of the gain was in our Boom cycle. This gain will now continue to go down because we are in a down cycle and depending on the economy we will have to see how long this down cycle will last and how far prices will go down.
Graph 3 below shows us that listings are starting to go up while sales have gone lower than last quarter. This quarter we had 17 listings for the quarter with 4 sales while last year in the second quarter we had 33 listings with 14 sales. Comparing the second quarter of the last two years with the second quarter of 2020, we had 72 listings and 6 sales. But you have to remember that is when the boom just started. As you can see we are already catching up to last year in listings but sales are staying down. If this continues it will keep pressure on prices to continue to go down.
Graph 4 In the Fawnskin area, the sales to expired ratios are still good with sales and expired listings close to a 1:1 ratio. There will always be expired listings. And a 1:1 ratio is considered a good ratio for a stable market.
Summary
With these numbers we can say that the second quarter started to show our reduction in prices and sales together with a increase in listings. We knew that this was coming with the slow down in the economy and a rise in interest rates because of inflation. Compared to The Big Three Fawnskin rank’s First in average sales price for the month of 6/2022. And rank’s first in Average Loss from 3/2022 to 6/2022 which means our rank in gain in price from 6/2020 to 6/2022 now comes in Third.
When we compare Fawnskin to the sub areas of Big Bear we rank third out of five in average price for the month of 6/2022. We rank Fourth in average loss from 3/2022 to 6/2022 which means our rank in gain in price from 6/2020 to 6/2022 is tied for third with the Fox Farm area.
Fawnskin when compared to the rest of Big Bear is doing well and with fluctuations in the graphs I expect some of the rankings to improve. But like the rest of the Big Bear Real Estate Market expect Prices to fall, listings to increase and Sales to go down through the rest of the year.
Fawnskin Area Market Trends: $800,000 and Up Price Range
The luxury market in Fawnskin has such a small amount of sales statistically there isn't enough turn over to give us accurate information. In 2020 there was 4 sales, in 2021 there were only eleven sales. And through the second quarter of 2022 we have four sales. Which is not enough to give us good statistical data. Remember that these are upscale custom homes where a view or furnishings can make a big difference in price. Each Cabin has to be analyzed on it's on merit. To get an understanding of the overall luxury market in Big Bear read, Big Bear Luxury Market Trends. I have attached the graphs below if you want to see them. If you have a property that you feel should sell for over $800,000 and want to know the value, contact me for a custom analysis on that property. Economic data for the second quarter and beyond is all pointing to a slow down in the market. Read my post about the slow down, Selling In Today's New Market. Expect a lot of changes in the graphs for the third quarter and the rest of the year.
My opinion is that we are going to witness a more normal market which should be a balance between the market of a few years ago and the one that we have had the past two years. In order to get to that normal market prices may come down a little. Cabins will be on the market longer. Sales will decline. But we will have sales every month and not go back to a stagnate market where we would not have sales for several months.
