Q1 Market Report - Big Bear Lake
Big Bear Lake Area Market Trends
Every three months, I will post detailed quarterly market trend tables made from three year graphs, for the Total Big Bear Area and 10 Sub Areas. Using the tables and graphs I will report the trends of Market Prices, Sales vs Active Listings, and Expired Listings and summarize what they mean to the current and future Total Big Bear Area and 10 Sub Areas Real Estate Markets. This section is for the Big Bear Lake Area. The following analysis is a detailed but easy to understand examination of these market trends.
The following stats have 2 sections. Section 1 up to $800,000 property value and Section 2 $800,000 and up, the Luxury Market. This seems to be the most accurate price range to split the market. If you want to just get the short version of the market in the Big Bear Lake Area, you can skip to the bottom of Section 1 and Section 2 and read the Overall Summary.
Section 1 notes: the Castle Glen, Eagle Knolls and Eagle Point/Eagle Point Estates Areas are not included in section 1 stats due to the fact that there aren’t any sales under $800,000 in these areas.
Section 2 notes: the possibility of wide swings in monthly and quarterly market prices in the $800,000 And Up Luxury Market.
Section 1 up to $800,000
Market Prices
Last Quarter Market Trends Surprisingly, the 2024 average monthly price for the first quarter of $572,667 was up $30,000 from the 2023 fourth quarter average monthly price of $542,667.
1 Year Market Trends The 2024 average monthly price for the first quarter of $572,000 was down $45000 from the 2023 first quarter average monthly price of $617,667.
3 Year Market Trends The 2024 average monthly price for the first quarter of $572,667 was down $45,000 from the 2022 first quarter average monthly price of $617,667.
Area Ranking The 2024 first quarter average monthly price of $572,667 gives the Big Bear Lake Area a ranking of 3rd highest in price out of the 7 sub areas for this price range, for the Total Big Bear Market. We also see in this quarter the Big Bear Lake Area has a $83,6667 higher average monthly price compared to the Total Big Bear average monthly price of $489,000.
Total Big Bear Area $489,000
The sub areas ranked as follows:
Fox Farm $665,667
Moonridge Area $617,667
Big Bear Lake Area $572,667
Lake Front Area $531,333
Fawnskin Area $504,500
Big Bear City $461,667
Snow Summit Area $422,500
Price Summary These numbers shows us that compared to last quarter the economic influences of higher rates and inflation have not affected prices in a negative way with prices up $30,000. When compared to 1 year ago prices are up $31,000. And when compared to 3 years ago prices are down $45,000. Until we see a change from interest rates or an increase in buyers starting to buy in the current economic conditions I would expect the number of listings to go up and sales to decline or stay about the same.
If you want to know what your Big Bear Lake cabin is worth in this price range, contact me to get a more detailed market analysis that takes into consideration the number of Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Square Feet, Lot size, Condition, Views and location.
Sales vs Active Listings (supply and demand)
Last Quarter The first quarter of 2024 had average monthly sales of 19 per month. Which was a decrease of 2 sales per month when compared to the sales of 21 per month for the fourth quarter of 2023. The average number of listings per month for the first quarter of 2024 was 108 which is 26 per month less when compared to the 134 average monthly listings for the fourth quarter of 2023.
1 Year Average The first quarter of 2024 had average monthly sales of 19 per month. Which was a decrease of 5 sales per month when compared to the sales of 24 per month in the first quarter of 2023. The average number of listings per month for the first quarter of 2024 was 108 which is 12 per month more when compared to the 96 average number of listings for the first quarter of 2023.
3 Year Average The first quarter of 2024 had average monthly sales of 19 per month. Which was a decrease of 7 sales per month when compared to the sales of 25 per month in the first quarter of 2022. The average number of listings per month for the first quarter of 2024 was 108 which is 38 per month more when compared to the 70 average monthly listings for the first quarter of 2022.
Sales vs Active Listings Summary These numbers show us that compared to last quarter the economic influences of higher rates and inflation have affected sales and listings in a negative way with sales down 2 and listings down 26. And when compared to to 1 year ago sales are down 7 and listings are up 12. And when compared to 3 years ago sales are down 7 and listings are up 38. Until we see a change from interest rates or an increase in buyers starting to buy in the current economic conditions I would expect the number of listings to go up and sales to decline or stay about the same. This might put pressure on prices to go down. Which is what you would expect in a declining market.
Sales vs Expired Listings (strength of sales)
Sales Vs Expired Market Trends Graph 3 In the Big Bear Lake Area, the sales to expired ratios for the last two years have been at a good level with sales and expired listings at a 1:1 Ratio. Where a 1:1 ratio is considered a good ratio for a stable market. Now that we are staying in the 1:2 ratio like we have had for the last 6 months it is an indicator that this market has pressure to be in a declining market.
up to $800,000 Overall Summary
Market Prices in the first quarter of 2024 there was an decrease in Price of $398,333 in average monthly price compared to the average monthly price for the fourth quarter of 2023. . There was also a increase in price of $239,333 from 1 year ago and a decrease in price of $176,333 from 3 years ago. This was expected in a market with wide swing
Sales and Listings in the first quarter of 2024 there was a average monthly increase in sales of 1 per month and a decrease of 5 listings per month, compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. There was also a decrease of 2 Sales per month and a increase of 4 listings compared to 1 year ago. We also had a decrease of 11 sales per month and a increase of 11 listings per month compared to 3 years ago.
Expired Listings have been experiencing a ratio of 1:2 in the last 6 months vs a 1:1 ratio which is an indicator of a possible weaking of this market.
These numbers show us that the economic influences of higher rates and inflation have affected prices compared to the last quarter but not the last year in a negative way. But it shows a general trend of prices in this price range gradually going up in this price range to make up for the losses that we witnessed after the peak in prices 3 years ago.
When looking at the data of the Big Bear Lake Area the two big areas of market influence to watch are of course the economy and the number of listings that come on the market. A worse economy and or a large increase of listings without an increase in sales might put a lot of pressure on prices to fall. This will also cause cabins to be on the market longer, which will put additional pressure on prices. Until we see a change from interest rates or an increase in buyers starting to buy in the current economic conditions I would expect the number of listings to go up and sales to decline or stay about the same.
Section 2 $800,000 and up (Luxury Market)
Market Prices
Last Quarter Market Trends Surprisingly, the 2024 average monthly price for the first quarter of $1,109,667 was down $398,333 from the 2023 fourth quarter average monthly price of $1,508,000.
1 Year Market Trends The 2024 average monthly price for the first quarter of $1,109,667 was down $239,333 from the 2023 first quarter average monthly price of $1,349,000.
3 Year Market Trends The 2024 average monthly price for the first quarter of $1,109,667 was down $176,333 from the 2022 first quarter average monthly price of $1,286,000.
Area Ranking The 2024 first quarter average monthly price of $1,109,667 gives the Big Bear Lake Area a ranking of 4th highest in price out of the 10 sub areas for this price range, for the Total Big Bear Market. We also see in this quarter the Big Bear Lake Area has a $47,667 lower average monthly price compared to the Total Big Bear average monthly price of $1,157,333.
Eagle knolls and Fawnskin didn’t have any sales in the first quarter of 2024.
Total Big Bear Area $1,157,333
The sub areas ranked as follows:
Castle Glen Area $1,583,667
Snow Summit Area $1,200,000
Fox Farm Area $1,188,000
Big Bear Lake Area $1,109,000
Big Bear City $1,100,000
Lake Front Area $1,087,333
Moonridge $920,000
Eagle Point/Estates $875,000
Eagle Knoll $0
Fawnskin $0
Price Summary These numbers shows us that compared to last quarter the economic influences of higher rates and inflation have affected prices in a negative way with prices down $398,333. When compared to 1 year ago prices are down $239,333. And when compared to 3 years ago prices are down $176,333. Until we see a change from interest rates or an increase in buyers starting to buy in the current economic conditions I would expect the number of listings to go up and sales to decline or stay about the same. This might put pressure on prices to go down.
Remember the possibility of wide swings in monthly and quarterly market prices in the $800,000 and up Luxury Market. See the first graph below “Historic Sales Price Trend $800,000+”.
If you want to know what your Big Bear Lake cabin is worth in this price range, contact me to get a more detailed market analysis that takes into consideration the number of Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Square Feet, Lot size, Condition, Views and location.
Sales vs Active Listings (supply and demand)
Last Quarter The first quarter of 2024 had average monthly sales of 8 per month. Which was a increase of 1 sale per month when compared to the sales of 7 per month for the fourth quarter of 2023. The average number of listings per month for the first quarter of 2024 was 63 which is 5 per month less when compared to the 68 average monthly listings for the fourth quarter of 2023.
1 Year Average The first quarter of 2024 had average monthly sales of 8 per month. Which was a decrease of 2 sales per month when compared to the sales of 10 per month in the first quarter of 2023. The average number of listings per month for the first quarter of 2024 was 63 which is 4 per month more when compared to the 59 average number of listings for the first quarter of 2023.
3 Year Average The first quarter of 2024 had average monthly sales of 8 per month. Which was a decrease of 11 sales per month when compared to the sales of 19 per month in the first quarter of 2022. The average number of listings per month for the first quarter of 2024 was 63 which is 11 per month more when compared to the 52 average monthly listings for the first quarter of 2022.
Sales vs Active Listings Summary These numbers show us that compared to last quarter the economic influences of higher rates and inflation have affected sales and listings in a negative way with sales down 1 and listings 5. And when compared to to 1 year ago sales are down 2 and listings are up 4. And when compared to 3 years ago sales are down 11 and listings are up 11. Until we see a change from interest rates or an increase in buyers starting to buy in the current economic conditions I would expect the number of listings to go up and sales to decline or stay about the same. This might put pressure on prices to go down.
It is also worth noting that during 2019 and before we were lucky to have 2 or 3 sales in three months in this price range for the Total Big Bear Area market. Where in the fourth quarter of 2023 the Big Bear Lake Area averaged 4 Sales per month.
Sales vs Expired Listings (strength of sales)
Sales Vs Expired Market Trends Graph 3 In the Big Bear Lake Area, the sales to expired ratio for the last three years have been at a good level with sales and expired listings close to a 1:1 ratio. And a 1:1 ratio is considered a good ratio for a stable market. Now that we are staying in the 1:2 ratio like we have had for the last 10 months it is an indicator that this market has pressure to be in declining market.
$800,000 and up Luxury Market Overall Summary
Market Prices in the first quarter of 2024 there was an decrease in Price of $398,000 in average monthly price compared to the average monthly price for the fourth quarter of 2023. There was also a decrease in price of $239,333 from 1 year ago and a decrease in price of $176,333 from 3 years ago.
Sales and Listings in the first quarter of 2024 there was a average monthly decrease in sales of 6 per month and a increase of 34 listings per month, compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. There was also a decrease of 6 Sales per month and a increase of 45 listings compared to 1 year ago. We also had a decrease of 4 sales per month and a increase of 45 listings per month compared to 3 years ago.
Expired Listings have been experiencing a ratio of 1:2 in the last 8 out of 13 months vs a 1:1 ratio which is an indicator of a possible weaking of this market.
These numbers show us that the economic influences of higher rates and inflation have affected prices, sales and listings in a negative way.
When looking at the data of the Big Bear Lake Area the two big areas of market influence to watch are of course the economy and the number of listings that come on the market. A worse economy and or a large increase of listings without an increase in sales will put a lot of pressure on prices to fall even more. This might cause cabins to be on the market longer, which will put additional pressure on prices. Until we see a change from interest rates or an increase in buyers starting to buy in the current economic conditions I would expect the number of listings to go up and sales to decline or stay about the same.