Q1 Market Report - Under 800,000
Total Big Bear Area Market Trends: $0-$800,000 Price Range
The following stats are for the Total Big Bear Area. Like most of Big Bear, I have broken up the Total Big Bear Area Market into two segments. Up to $800,000 property value and the Luxury Market which is $800,000 and up. This seems to be the most accurate price range to split the market. Every three months, I will post detailed quarterly market trend tables and graphs for each price range with a condensed but easy to understand examination of the market stats. If you want to just get the short version of the market in the Total Big Bear Area, you can skip to the bottom and read the Summary.
Market Prices
Tables 1 & 2 (below) were created from three-years of monthly average price graphs for the Total Big Bear Area and the 10 sub areas. Graph 1 below covers the Total Big Bear Area monthly stats. I will be using the tables to analyze what trends I see with Real Estate prices in the 0 - $800,000 Market in the Total Big Bear Area. The tables and graph have the parameters of: Price Range 0 - $800,000, from January 2021 to March of 2023.
In the Total Big Bear Area, the first quarter of 2023 had an average monthly price of $477,000. This was up $56,000 from the 2021 first quarter average monthly price of $421,000. Not surprising the 2023 average monthly price for the first quarter was down $25,000 from the 2022 first quarter average monthly price of $502,000. But the 2023 first quarter average monthly price was up $18,000 from the 2022 fourth quarter average monthly price of $459,000.
This shows us that the economic influences of higher rates and inflation have not affected prices in a negative way this quarter compared to last quarter but there was a decrease in price compared to a year ago. Given the current economic conditions I would expect prices to hold steady for at least the next quarter.
To see how the prices in the other sub areas have done for comparison please refer to Table 2 below or check out the write up on that area.
If you want to know what your Big Bear cabin is worth in this price range in your area, contact me to get a more detailed market analysis that takes into consideration the number of Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Square Feet, Lot size, Condition and Views or location.
Sales vs Active Listings (supply and demand)
Table 3 shows what residential real estate inventory changes (Sales vs Active listings) have occurred for the Total Big Bear Area and sub areas. It is made up of monthly graphs for each area. Graph 2 below has the Total Big Bear Area monthly stats. These stats are compiled by using a parameter of: Price Range of 0 - $800,000 from the 3-year period January 2021 to March of 2023.
You can see from column 7 that, 2023 first quarter average monthly sales of 47 per month was 14 lower than the average monthly sales of 61 per month for the fourth quarter of 2022. The average number of listings per month for the first quarter of 2023 was 215 which is 71 per month less when compared to the 286 average monthly listings for the fourth quarter of 2022.
When you look at column 6 you can see, 2023 first quarter average monthly sales of 47 per month was 32 lower than the average monthly sales of 79 per month for the first quarter of 2022. The average number of listings per month for the first quarter of 2023 was 215 which is 26 per month more when compared to the 189 average monthly listings for the first quarter of 2022.
This shows us that the economic influences of higher rates and inflation have affected sales in a negative way this quarter compared to last quarter and compared to a year ago. Given the current economic conditions I would expect the number of listings to go up and sales to decline or stay about the same. This will put pressure on prices to go down. Which is what you would expect in a declining market. So far, the Total Big Bear Area is experiencing a declining market in sales.
Sales vs Expired Listings (strength of Sales)
Graph 3 In the Total Big Bear Area, the sales to expired ratios for the last two years have been at a good level with sales and expired listings between a 1:1 and a 1:2 ratio. There will always be expired listings. And a 1:1 ratio is considered a good ratio for a stable market. Now that we are staying in the 1:2 ratio like we have had for the last 5 months it is an indicator that this market has pressure to be in a declining market.
Summary
Market Prices in the Total Big Bear Area in the first quarter of 2023 there was a increase of $18,000 in average monthly price compared to the average monthly price for the fourth quarter of 2022. This was not expected in a declining market. When you compare the Sales and Listings of the first quarter of 2023 to the fourth quarter of 2022. The Total Big Bear Area had a average monthly decrease of 13 Sales per month in the first quarter of 2023 and a decrease of 71 Listings per month. As far as Expired Listings we have been experiencing a ratio of 1:2 in the last 5 months vs a 1:1 ratio which is an indicator of a possible weaking of this market.
For vacation homes, the Total Big Bear Area is in a neutral to good market. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next few quarters.
Expect the possibility of the graphs for the next quarter and maybe the rest of 2023 to reflect a continued slow Real Estate Market. With the hope of keeping prices stabilized.
In my opinion when looking at the data of the overall market in Big Bear and the stats for the Total Big Bear Area we should have steady prices soon. The two big areas of market influence to watch are of course the economy and the amount of listings that come on the market. A worse economy and or a large increase of listings without an increase in sales will put a lot of pressure on prices to start to fall. This will also cause cabins to be on the market longer, which will put additional pressure on prices.