Fawnskin Area Market Trends: $0-$800,000 Price Range

The following stats are for the Fawnskin Area. I have divided the Total Big Bear Area into 10 Sub Areas to give you more detailed information on the area where your property is located. Like most of Big Bear, I have broken up the Fawnskin Market into two segments Up to $800,000 property value and the Luxury Market over $800,000. This seems to be the most accurate price range to split the market. Every three months, I will post detailed quarterly market trend tables and graphs for each price range with a condensed but easy to understand examination of the market stats. If you want to just get the short version of the market in the Fawnskin area you can skip to the bottom of each price range and read the Summary.

Market Prices

The following stats are for the Fawnskin Area. I have divided the Total Big Bear Area into 10 Sub Areas to give you more detailed information on the area where your property is located. Like most of Big Bear, I have broken up the Fawnskin Market into two segments. Up to $800,000 property value and the Luxury Market which is $800,000 and up. This seems to be the most accurate price range to split the market. Every three months, I will post detailed quarterly market trend tables and graphs for each price range with a condensed but easy to understand examination of the market stats. If you want to just get the short version of the market in the Fawnskin Area, you can skip to the bottom of the price range and read the Summary.

Market Prices

Tables 1 & 2 (below) were created from three-years of monthly average price graphs for the Total Big Bear Area and the 10 sub areas. Graph 1 below covers the Fawnskin Area monthly stats. I will be using the tables to analyze what trends I see with Real Estate prices in the 0 - $800,000 Market in the Fawnskin Area. The tables and graph have the parameters of: Price Range 0 - $800,000, from January 2021 to March of 2023.

In the Fawnskin Area, the first quarter of 2023 had an average monthly price of $466,000. This was down $47,000 from the 2021 first quarter average monthly price of $419,000. Not surprising the 2023 average monthly price for the first quarter was down $89,000 from the 2022 first quarter average monthly price of $555,000. But the 2023 first quarter average monthly price was up $74,000 from the 2022 fourth quarter average monthly price of $392,000.

The 2023 Fawnskin Area first quarter average monthly price of $466,000 gives the Fawnskin Area a ranking of 6 out of 10 of the sub areas for the Big Bear market. This price ranking puts the Fawnskin Area in the top 60% of the Total Big Bear Area and is lower than the average monthly Total Big Bear Area price of $477,000 by $11,000.

To see how the prices in the other sub areas have done for comparison please refer to Table 2 below or check out the write up on that area.

If you want to know what your Big Bear cabin is worth in this price range in the Fawnskin Area, contact me to get a more detailed market analysis that takes into consideration the number of Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Square Feet, Lot size, Condition and Views or location.

Sales vs Active Listings (supply and demand)

Table 3 shows what residential real estate inventory changes (Sales vs Active listings) have occurred for the Total Big Bear Area and sub areas. It is made up of monthly graphs for each area. Graph 2 below has the Fawnskin Area monthly stats. These stats are compiled by using a parameter of: Price Range of 0 - $800,000 from the 3-year period January 2021 to March of 2023.

You can see from column 7 that, 2023 first quarter average monthly sales of 1 per month was 8 lower than the average monthly sales of 9 per month for the fourth quarter of 2022. The average number of listings per month for the first quarter of 2023 was 7 which is 2 per month less when compared to the 9 average monthly listings for the fourth quarter of 2022.

When you look at column 6 you can see, 2023 first quarter average monthly sales of 1 per month was 2 lower than the average monthly sales of 3 per month for the first quarter of 2022. The average number of listings per month for the first quarter of 2023 was 7 which is 4 per month more when compared to the 3 average monthly listings for the first quarter of 2022.

This shows us that the economic influences of higher rates and inflation have affected sales in a negative way this quarter compared to last quarter and compared to a year ago. Given the current economic conditions I would expect the number of listings to go up and sales to decline or stay about the same. This will put pressure on prices to go down. Which is what you would expect in a declining market. So far, the Fawnskin Area is experiencing a declining market in sales.

Graph 3 In the Fawnskin Area, the sales to expired ratios for the last two years have been at a good level with sales and expired listings between a 1:1 and a 1:2 ratio. There will always be expired listings. And a 1:1 ratio is considered a good ratio for a stable market. But as we have seen prices and sales are down so you would expect this ratio to be at least 1:2.

Summary

Market Prices in the Fawnskin Area in the first quarter of 2023 there was a decrease of $74,000 in average monthly price compared to the average monthly price for the fourth quarter of 2022. This was expected in a declining market. When you compare the Sales and Listings of the first quarter of 2023 to the fourth quarter of 2022. The Fawnskin Area had a average monthly decrease of 8 Sales per month in the first quarter of 2023 and a decrease of 2 Listings per month. As far as Expired Listings we have been experiencing a ratio of 1:1 ratio which is an indicator of a good market but with the decline in prices and sales we could expect this to go to a 1:2 ratio.

For vacation homes, the Fawnskin Area is in a declining market. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next few quarters.

Expect the possibility of the graphs for the next quarter and maybe the rest of 2023 to reflect a continued slow Real Estate Market. With the hope of keeping prices stabilized.

In my opinion when looking at the data of the overall market in Big Bear and the stats for the Fawnskin Area we should have steady prices in the near future. The two big areas of market influence to watch is of course the economy and the amount of listings that come on the market. A worse economy and or a large increase of listings without an increase in sales will put a lot of pressure on prices to start to fall. This will also cause cabins to be on the market longer, which will put additional pressure on prices.

Fawnskin Area Market Trends: $800,000 and Up Price Range

Because of the low amount of sales in this price range in the Fawnskin Area (there hasn’t been a sale since September), there is statistically not enough turn over to give us accurate information. A better indicator would be the Total Luxury Market in Big Bear. . Remember that these are upscale custom homes where a view or furnishings can make a big difference in price. Each Cabin has to be analyzed on it's on merit.

If you want to know what your Big Bear cabin is worth in this price range in the Fawnskin area, contact me to get a more detailed market analysis that takes into consideration the number of Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Square Feet, Lot size, Condition and Views or location.

I have put the various charts and graphs below. But they really have no meaning.