Q1 Market Report - Eagle Knolls

Eagle Knolls Market Trends: $800,000 And Over Price Range

The following stats are for the Eagle Knolls Area. I have divided the Total Big Bear Area into 10 Sub Areas to give you more detailed information on the area where your property is located. Unlike most of Big Bear, I didn’t break up the Eagle Knolls Market into two segments Up to $800,000 property value and the Luxury Market over $800,000. Because there really isn’t any sales in this area below $800,000. A better indicator would be the Total Luxury Market in Big Bear. I will post detailed quarterly market trend tables and graphs for each price range with a condensed but easy to understand examination of the market stats. If you want to just get the short version you can skip to the bottom and read the Summary.

Market Prices

In this price range there can be a difference of $400,000 or more in the monthly average price. You need to keep this in mind even with me taking the three-monthly stats to get a average quarterly monthly stat there can still be a short-term, large swing in prices.

Table 1 & 2 (below) were created from three-years of monthly average price graphs for the Total Big Bear Area and the 10 sub areas. Graph 1 below covers the Eagle Knolls Area monthly stats. I will be using the tables to analyze what trends I see with Real Estate prices in the $800,000 and up Luxury Market in the Eagle Knolls Area. The tables and graph have the parameters of: Price Range $800,000 and up, from January 2021 to March of 2023.

In the Eagle Knolls Area, the first quarter of 2023 had an average monthly price of $1,180,000. This was down $320,000 from the 2021 first quarter average monthly price of $1,500,000. Not surprisingly, the 2023 average monthly price for the first quarter of $1,180,000 was down $315,000 from the 2022 first quarter average monthly price of $1,495,000. And the 2023 first quarter average monthly price was down $0 from the 2022 fourth quarter average monthly price (There were no sales in the fourth quarter of 2022) of $0. Remember the possibility of wide market swings in this price range.

The 2023 Eagle Knolls Area first quarter average monthly price of $1,180,000 gives the Eagle Knolls Area a ranking of 7 out of 10 of the sub areas for the Big Bear Market. This price ranking puts the Eagle Knolls Area in the top 70% of the Total Big Bear Area. And is lower than the average monthly Total Big Bear Area price of $1,329,000 by $149,000.

To see how the prices in the other sub areas have done for comparison please refer to Table 2 below or check out the write up on that area.

If you want to know what your Big Bear cabin is worth in this price range in the Eagle Knolls area, contact me to get a more detailed market analysis that takes into consideration the number of Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Square Feet, Lot size, Condition and Views or location.

Sales vs Active Listings (supply and demand)

Table 3 shows what residential real estate inventory changes (Sales vs Active listings) have occurred for the Total Big Bear Area and sub areas. It is made up of monthly graphs for each area. Graph 2 below has the Eagle Knolls Area monthly stats. These stats are compiled by using a parameter of: Price Range of $800,000 and up from the 3-year period January 2021 to March of 2023.

Because of the low number of sales in the Eagle Knolls Area, there is statistically not enough turnover to give us accurate information. A better indicator would be the Total Luxury Market in Big Bear. But I will use the graphs to try and give us an idea of the Eagle Knolls Area. Remember that these are upscale custom homes where a view or furnishings can make a big difference in price. Each Cabin must be analyzed on its merit.

You can see from column 7 that, 2023 first quarter average monthly sales of 1 per month was 1 more than the average monthly sales of 0 per month for the fourth quarter of 2022. The average number of listings per month for the first quarter of 2023 was 1 which is the same per month when compared to the 1 average monthly listings for the fourth quarter of 2022.

When you look at column 6 you can see, 2023 first quarter average monthly sales of 1 per month was one less than the average monthly number of Sales of 2 per month for the first quarter of 2022. The average number of listings per month for the first quarter of 2023 was 1 which is the same when compared to the 1 average monthly listings for the first quarter of 2022.

This shows us that the economic influences of higher rates and inflation have not affected sales in a negative way this quarter compared to last quarter and compared to a year ago. But this is because of the fact that there are very few listings or sales in the Eagle Knolls Area. Given the current economic conditions I would expect the number of listings to go up and sales to decline or stay about the same. So far, the Eagle Knolls Area is experiencing a steady market in sales.

It is also worth noting that during 2019 and before we were lucky to have 2 or 3 sales in three months in this price range for the whole Big Bear market. Where in the first quarter of 2023 the Eagle Knolls Area reflects these number. But it is because there just aren’t many sales per month in this area. So overall the Eagle Knolls Area market is still in good condition concerning sales. .

Sales vs Expired Listings (strength of Sales)

Graph 3 In the Eagle Knolls Area, the sales to expired ratio for the last three years have been at a good level with sales and expired listings between a 1:1 and a 1:2 ratio. There will always be expired listings. And a 1:1 ratio is considered a good ratio for a stable market. Now that we are staying in the 1:2 ratio like we have had for the last 5 months it is an indicator that this market has pressure to be in a declining market. But in reality the numbers for the Eagle Knolls area are just too few to make a prediction.

Summary

Market Prices in the Eagle Knolls Area in the first quarter of 2023 there was a decrease of 0 in average monthly price compared to the average monthly price for the fourth quarter (there were no sales in the fourth quarter) of 2022. This was expected in a declining market. But you must remember to consider the wide price swings in the Luxury Market. When you compare the Sales and Listings of the first quarter of 2023 to the fourth quarter (there were no sales in the fourth quarter) of 2022. The Eagle Knolls Area had a average monthly increase of 0 Sales per month in the first quarter of 2023 even with listings staying the same at 1. As far as Expired Listings we have been experiencing a ratio of 1:2 in the last 5 months vs a 1:1 ratio which is an indicator of a possible weaking of this market.

For vacation homes, the Eagle Knolls Area is in a neutral market. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next few quarters.

Expect the possibility of the graphs for the next quarter and maybe the rest of 2023 to reflect a continued slow Real Estate Market. With the hope of keeping prices stabilized.

In my opinion when looking at the data of the overall luxury market in Big Bear and the stats for the Eagle Knolls Area Luxury Market we should have steady prices soon. The two big areas of market influence to watch are of course the economy and the number of listings that come on the market. A worse economy and or a large increase of listings without an increase in sales will put a lot of pressure on prices to start to fall. This will also cause cabins to be on the market longer, which will put additional pressure on prices.

Because of the low amount of sales of cabins in Eagle Knolls, there is statistically not enough turn over to give us accurate information. A better indicator would be the Total Luxury Market in Big Bear. Remember that these are upscale custom homes where a view or furnishings can make a big difference in price. Each Cabin has to be analyzed on it's on merit.

With these numbers we can say that 2021 through 2023 has continued with a wide swing in prices. If you look at the first graph you can see months that range from$860,000 to $1,925,000