The Real Estate Market May Take A Turn In May

When you consider that we are in a second home market and that interest rates have stayed high for over a year, our Real Estate market in Big Bear has done very well. But like all markets we can only take so much pressure before some adjustments start to take place.  And it looks like May might have started the adjustment process. 

Let’s take a look at the two markets, 0-$800,000 and $800,000 and up and see what they are doing.

First 0 - $800,000.  If we look at two graphs, we get a picture of Price and Sales vs Listings. Prices in this price range have stayed relatively stable over the past 2 years.   We even hit a 2-year high this February of $508,000.  The problem is that after February we have continuously been going down.  In March we hit $493,000 then in April we hit $459,000.  Generally, two months don’t make a trend but so far in May we have averaged $458,000. Hopefully the last two months will show us where prices will stabilize for the summer.  So, the question is will this continue? 

If we look at the next graph, Sale vs Listings we can see that in April of 2022 we had 98 sales and 233 listings.  In April of 2023 we had 41 sales and 256 listings.  Last April we had 62 sales and 314 listings.  This shows us that listings in 2024 are higher than 2022 and 2023, but with the higher listings we also have higher sales than 2023.  The problem is will sales follow listings up in 2024 and if so, how much.    We already have April sales 21 sales higher than last year.  And if we look at the first half of, May we are 38 listings higher than April but sales are 34 lower than April.   We need May to have a good second half in sales to help keep prices stable. 

Now let’s look at the $800,000 and up market.  When we look at the price graph for this market, we see wide swings of up to $400,000 per month.  In this price range it depends on what properties are listed.  Are there lakefront properties, properties next to the ski areas.  Very large properties with a view.  So, we never have a price graph that is consistent.  But overall, I would say that prices in the $800,0000 and up price range are stable for now. 

But let’s look at the sales vs listings graph.  In April of 2022 we had sales of 22 and listings of 89.  In April of 2023 we had sales of 12 and listings of 73.  Last April we had 15 sales and 100 listings.  So, sales were good, but listings are going up more than sales. And if this continues, it will seem like we would have pressure for prices to go down.  But I think that if we stay in the 10 -15 sales per month range, prices won’t go down.  Remember just a few years ago we were lucky to have 3 sales in two or three months.  So, in this market, even with the higher number of listings if we had 10-15 sales per month we would actually be in a good market.  Which will prevent prices from going down.