Big Bear Real Estate Getting Hit Hard

The Big Bear Real Estate market is going through a declining phase.  We knew that was coming.  I have discussed the transition in the first quarter and the start of the decline in the second quarter.  Now that we have the stats for the third quarter, we can see how bad the decline has hit us so far.  Before I get into the graphs and data, I would like to say that we have been hit pretty hard in some areas.  How hard we end up getting hit is going to depend on a lot of external influences and a few local influences.  The main local influence will be Measure M, which won’t be resolved until the election.  It seems like it won’t pass but until we get the election results we are going to have that continue to put pressure on the market to go down as sellers try and sell because of the uncertainty. Instead of rehashing Measure O please read my post: Big Bear Real Estate, Is There A Crash Coming In November?. 

And of course, we still have the external influences.  For the most part we are a second home market.  We get hit first and sometime hardest. So, we have to deal with the war, inflation, higher interest rates and just a market correction. 

Now let’s get into some data.  To see all the graphs and more detailed break down of the various markets you can look at Total Big Bear Market Stats for properties in the 0-$800,000 market and The Total Big Bear Luxury Market For Properties $800,000 And Up. 

For those of you who are new to my posts.  I have broken the Big Bear Market into two categories, 0-$800,000 and $800,000 and up.  These two markets behave differently, and the third quarter of 2022 reinforces that.   I also have broken Big Bear Valley into various neighborhoods.  Which have had some surprising stats this quarter. 

So let’s get to the data;

In the 0-$800,000 category we have some wide swings.  Sales are down 33% and listings have only gone up a little bit.  So, with sales down prices were set to go down but I didn’t think it would be so much.  In this category by taking the average monthly peak price that we reached in March of 2022 of $534,000 and subtracting the average monthly price of September of 2022 of $465,000 we get a decline in average monthly price of $69,000.   It took two years for the average price to reach it’s peak in March which gave us a two-year gain of $120,000.   It has taken six months to erase almost 60% of that two-year gain.  Hopefully after November and given that listings haven’t gone up too much, we have come close to the bottom of the price decline.  The external influences will determine how far we go down. 

In the $800,000 category we have some wide swings in sales and listings but like the last 4 years prices have remained steady.  You would think that average monthly prices would have gone up the last few years and gone down in the second and third quarters.  But average prices have remained relatively steady so far.  Unlike the last few years where sales have gone up and listings have gone down or stayed steady we have sales going down 40% and listings going up 43%.  With listings up so much, we may finally see prices have enough pressure to go down some.  It will be interesting to see what happens in this category the next few quarters. 

So what do you do if you want to sell now?  Cabins are still selling.  There are buyers for all price ranges and all types of cabins in various conditions.  I just closed 2 transactions priced from $530,000 to $1,600,000.  Recently I took a $550,000 listing that is completely destroyed.  And sold it myself in 2 weeks. I am very excited about a new listing I took yesterday that is an incredible custom cabin that I am setting up a marketing plan where I am going to try and get over $100,000 more than the most expensive cabin sold in that area.  If you are thinking about selling let’s talk about a plan that works for you in todays market.

I just published the third quarter stats for all the areas in Big Bear. Per several requests I have revised the way I present the data with the addition of easy to read Tables. Look up and click on your area to see how it has done so far in our declining market.